ARISE - Aiding Risk Information learning through Simulated Experience

Peter Wegier

Abstract: Conditional probabilities—the likelihood that one event will occur given that another event has already occurred—are common in medical decision making. “What’s the probability I have a disease given a screening test returned a positive result? 100%? 50%? 1%?” Properly understanding conditional probabilities is vital to informed medical decision making. Research has shown that people learn the probabilities in a choice differently if the decision is presented from description versus from experience. We will present a series of studies using the ARISE—Aiding Risk Information learning through Simulated Experience—paradigm, a visual method for simulating large numbers of results as a way for a decision maker to learn probably from experience.

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